Since the beginning of this year, the news paper market has undergone major changes. Domestic newsprint producers raised their prices twice in January and April, causing newspapers accustomed to low-priced newsprint to pay more attention to the cost of paper.
The first five years of the new century were the period of rapid development of China's newspaper industry. The entire newspaper industry was less sensitive to cost, especially the urban newspapers whose advertising revenues doubled, and they were not very concerned about the cost of paper. However, with the popularization of Internet and mobile information services in recent years, paper media management has become increasingly difficult and highly sensitive to costs.
In fact, it is normal for newsprint prices to rise and fall. What will happen to this year's price increase?
Only by gaining an in-depth understanding of the historical price fluctuations of newsprint and the supply and demand of the entire industry, as well as the main factors affecting the price changes of newsprint, can market volatility be properly taken and responded appropriately. This paper sorts out the changes in news paper prices in the past 10 years, makes a comparative analysis of historical price trends, and makes judgments on the next market trend.
The price level in 2009 is historically low and not sustainable.
In the second half of 2009, the leading price of domestic newsprint was 3,950 yuan/ton, and in the first quarter of 2010, it was raised to 4,400 yuan/ton. Since April, the market price has risen to 4,700 yuan in batches. Statistics of news paper prices for the past 10 years from 2001 to the present, you can see:
In the 111 months from January 2001 to the first quarter of 2010, the price of newsprint at the price of 4,700 yuan / ton (inclusive) was 76 months, accounting for 68% of the total month, of which the price was above 5,000 yuan / ton. The time is 53 months, accounting for 48%; the price is less than 4,700 yuan / ton (excluding) for 35 months, accounting for 32%, all after January 2006, of which the price is 4,400 yuan / The amount below ton (inclusive) is 23 months, accounting for 21%. In the 51 months from January 2006 to the first quarter of 2010, the price of newsprint was above 4,700 yuan/ton (inclusive) for 16 months, accounting for only 31%, of which the price was above 5,000 yuan/ton. The time is 16 months, accounting for 20%, while the price is below 4,700 yuan and 4,400 yuan, accounting for 69% and 45% respectively.
Comparing the above two sets of data, it can be found that the ratio of news paper price higher than 4,700 yuan after 2006 to 2001 and present is basically reversed, indicating that the overall price level of newsprint has been declining since 2006. The time ratio below 4,400 yuan (inclusive) is 21% and 45%, respectively, indicating that the price below 4,400 yuan is generally historically low.
Market conditions of oversupply will be maintained for a long time
After 2006, the overall decline in newsprint prices was caused by changes in the market supply and demand structure. Before 2006, the domestic newspaper industry developed rapidly and the demand continued to rise. Although the supply of newsprint was also increasing, the range was relatively reasonable, resulting in the relatively stable price of newsprint. Since the second half of 2005, the production capacity of domestic newsprint has expanded dramatically, and the growth of newsprint demand has not kept pace with the expansion of newsprint capacity. In 2009, there was even a decline of about 15%. Oversupply will inevitably lead to a decline in the overall price level of the market.
In the second half of 2005, 37,000 tons of Hebei Nosk and 400,000 tons of Shandong Huatai were put into production, resulting in the news paper price falling from 5,600 yuan in the first half of 2005 to 4,600 yuan in the second half of 2006. In the fourth quarter of 2006, Shandong Chenming and Shandong Huatai two 450,000 tons of paper machines were put into production, and the production of 150,000 tons of Guangzhou paper mills and 180,000 tons of paper machines of Shanying Paper before and after this made the price of newsprint further decline. It started to rebound in August 2007, but it was still below the level of 4,600 yuan in 2007. In the first three quarters of 2008, due to the rising demand for newsprint in the domestic and international markets, especially the domestic expectations for the Olympic Games, the price of domestic newsprint rose sharply, from 4,600 yuan in the fourth quarter of 2007 to 6,100 yuan in the third quarter of 2008. . Subsequently, due to the outbreak of the financial crisis and the commissioning of Guangzhou's 400,000-ton paper machine, the price of newsprint began another round of more violent plunging until it fell below 4,000 yuan.
Overall, the price of paper falling below 4,000 yuan in 2009 is a special case under the special economic background. Due to the irrational expansion of newsprint production capacity from 2005 to 2008, the situation of oversupply of domestic newsprint has been established. At present, the market demand for domestic newsprint is about 3.5-3.8 million tons, while the production capacity of domestic newsprint is more than 4 million tons (due to the closure and turn of newsprint machines, the production capacity of newsprint has greater flexibility). This situation is very favorable for the newspaper industry as a newsprint consumer, and the sharp rise in newsprint prices has been constrained.
Newsprint prices will not rise sharply, but cost-driven recovery will inevitably
4700 yuan up and down for the normal price level of newsprint. From February 2009 to the first quarter of this year, newsprint prices have reached 4,400 yuan and below for 14 months, especially for most of last year, paper prices are below 4,000 yuan, making many people overlook the normal occurrence of paper prices. fluctuation. In fact, the following factors make the reasonable recovery of newsprint prices reasonable and inevitable.
1. Imported waste paper prices have risen and supply is unstable.
At present, almost all of China's newsprint production uses waste paper as the main raw material. The production of 1 ton of finished newsprint requires about 1.4 tons of waste newsprint, accounting for 40-50% of the production cost of newsprint. Due to the imperfect domestic waste paper recycling system, the raw materials of China's large newsprint mills are basically imported waste paper. Before the end of 2007, the price of imported waste paper was below US$150/ton.
Due to the significant decline in the volume of paper used in newspapers in North America in recent years, the amount of waste paper resources that can be imported by China has decreased and the quality has declined. In addition, some domestic packaging paper companies have begun to use waste newspapers as raw materials, resulting in tight supply of waste paper. In 2008, the price of imported waste paper reached once reached $300/ton. In the fourth quarter of 2008, due to the financial crisis, the price of imported waste paper fell to below $100. This is also the reason why the price of newsprint has dropped rapidly to around 4,000 yuan. Some newsprint mills began to resume the purchase of waste paper, and the price of waste paper rebounded very quickly. At present, the price of imported waste paper has reached 240 US dollars.
2. The price of coal and electricity transportation has increased significantly compared with that of 2006.
The paper industry is a high-energy-consuming industry, and electricity and hot gas are used in large quantities in the production process. Before 2005, domestic coal prices were at a low level for a long time. After 2006, coal prices have doubled. Transport prices have also risen due to rising fuel prices.
3. Environmental protection costs have risen.
Due to the strict implementation of national environmental protection policies, the environmental protection costs of the paper industry have increased. On May 26, due to the unfulfilled refinancing and environmental protection commitments, Shandong Chenming Paper appeared in the list of 11 listed companies exposed by CCTV.
4. A large number of enterprises have shut down and explained that the operation of newsprint enterprises is bad. Existing enterprises have fully realized that vicious price competition is unsustainable, and the phenomenon of limited production and insured has begun to appear.
In 2004, Heilongjiang Paper closed down; in 2006, Yueyang Paper discontinued newsprint; in 2009, Hebei Noske (Pan Asia) was sold to Huatai Group at a price of 1 yuan, while Huatai Group acquired Hebei Nosk. A total of 360,000 tons of newsprint papers from the Shandong headquarters were converted into cultural paper, and Chenming Paper also transferred the printing paper of Wuhan Chenming's 140,000 tons of news paper machine to cultural paper; this fully shows that the news paper industry is very difficult to operate. Huatai Group suffered a loss in the fourth quarter of 2009. In the first quarter of 2010, Huatai Group continued to lose money in the case of news paper prices rising by RMB 450/ton from the fourth quarter of last year (see Huatai's 2009 annual report and 2010 first quarter report). According to industry sources, Guangzhou Paper Group Corporation also suffered huge losses in 2009. In the Spring Festival of 2010, the newsprint industry collectively stopped for half a month to reduce supply and ensure the price increase was successful.
5. The relationship between supply and demand will no longer function for a long time when the price is lower than the cost.
The price is determined by the supply and demand relationship, but in two cases. First, a certain product is too expensive for the user to accept, and then seeks alternatives; second, the price of a certain product is lower than the cost for a long time, and the producer cannot afford it. Under the premise of the domestic news paper theoretical capacity far greater than the demand, we must also pay attention to the role of rigid cost on the price.
Combined with the factors that constrain the sharp rise in newsprint prices and the recovery of price recovery, we believe that newsprint prices have rebounded to around 4,700, which is the normal state of the market. As the economy improves further, it is not possible to rule out further increases to 5,000 yuan in the second half of the year, but it is less likely to rise again. Under the situation that the overall supply of paper exceeds demand and the development of newspaper industry is relatively stable, it is more cost factor to determine the price trend.
A relatively stable market is beneficial to both the paper industry and the newspaper industry. The paper industry should reasonably control production capacity and avoid vicious price competition. The newspaper industry should also have a normal sense of a reasonable return to paper prices.
The first five years of the new century were the period of rapid development of China's newspaper industry. The entire newspaper industry was less sensitive to cost, especially the urban newspapers whose advertising revenues doubled, and they were not very concerned about the cost of paper. However, with the popularization of Internet and mobile information services in recent years, paper media management has become increasingly difficult and highly sensitive to costs.
In fact, it is normal for newsprint prices to rise and fall. What will happen to this year's price increase?
Only by gaining an in-depth understanding of the historical price fluctuations of newsprint and the supply and demand of the entire industry, as well as the main factors affecting the price changes of newsprint, can market volatility be properly taken and responded appropriately. This paper sorts out the changes in news paper prices in the past 10 years, makes a comparative analysis of historical price trends, and makes judgments on the next market trend.
The price level in 2009 is historically low and not sustainable.
In the second half of 2009, the leading price of domestic newsprint was 3,950 yuan/ton, and in the first quarter of 2010, it was raised to 4,400 yuan/ton. Since April, the market price has risen to 4,700 yuan in batches. Statistics of news paper prices for the past 10 years from 2001 to the present, you can see:
In the 111 months from January 2001 to the first quarter of 2010, the price of newsprint at the price of 4,700 yuan / ton (inclusive) was 76 months, accounting for 68% of the total month, of which the price was above 5,000 yuan / ton. The time is 53 months, accounting for 48%; the price is less than 4,700 yuan / ton (excluding) for 35 months, accounting for 32%, all after January 2006, of which the price is 4,400 yuan / The amount below ton (inclusive) is 23 months, accounting for 21%. In the 51 months from January 2006 to the first quarter of 2010, the price of newsprint was above 4,700 yuan/ton (inclusive) for 16 months, accounting for only 31%, of which the price was above 5,000 yuan/ton. The time is 16 months, accounting for 20%, while the price is below 4,700 yuan and 4,400 yuan, accounting for 69% and 45% respectively.
Comparing the above two sets of data, it can be found that the ratio of news paper price higher than 4,700 yuan after 2006 to 2001 and present is basically reversed, indicating that the overall price level of newsprint has been declining since 2006. The time ratio below 4,400 yuan (inclusive) is 21% and 45%, respectively, indicating that the price below 4,400 yuan is generally historically low.
Market conditions of oversupply will be maintained for a long time
After 2006, the overall decline in newsprint prices was caused by changes in the market supply and demand structure. Before 2006, the domestic newspaper industry developed rapidly and the demand continued to rise. Although the supply of newsprint was also increasing, the range was relatively reasonable, resulting in the relatively stable price of newsprint. Since the second half of 2005, the production capacity of domestic newsprint has expanded dramatically, and the growth of newsprint demand has not kept pace with the expansion of newsprint capacity. In 2009, there was even a decline of about 15%. Oversupply will inevitably lead to a decline in the overall price level of the market.
In the second half of 2005, 37,000 tons of Hebei Nosk and 400,000 tons of Shandong Huatai were put into production, resulting in the news paper price falling from 5,600 yuan in the first half of 2005 to 4,600 yuan in the second half of 2006. In the fourth quarter of 2006, Shandong Chenming and Shandong Huatai two 450,000 tons of paper machines were put into production, and the production of 150,000 tons of Guangzhou paper mills and 180,000 tons of paper machines of Shanying Paper before and after this made the price of newsprint further decline. It started to rebound in August 2007, but it was still below the level of 4,600 yuan in 2007. In the first three quarters of 2008, due to the rising demand for newsprint in the domestic and international markets, especially the domestic expectations for the Olympic Games, the price of domestic newsprint rose sharply, from 4,600 yuan in the fourth quarter of 2007 to 6,100 yuan in the third quarter of 2008. . Subsequently, due to the outbreak of the financial crisis and the commissioning of Guangzhou's 400,000-ton paper machine, the price of newsprint began another round of more violent plunging until it fell below 4,000 yuan.
Overall, the price of paper falling below 4,000 yuan in 2009 is a special case under the special economic background. Due to the irrational expansion of newsprint production capacity from 2005 to 2008, the situation of oversupply of domestic newsprint has been established. At present, the market demand for domestic newsprint is about 3.5-3.8 million tons, while the production capacity of domestic newsprint is more than 4 million tons (due to the closure and turn of newsprint machines, the production capacity of newsprint has greater flexibility). This situation is very favorable for the newspaper industry as a newsprint consumer, and the sharp rise in newsprint prices has been constrained.
Newsprint prices will not rise sharply, but cost-driven recovery will inevitably
4700 yuan up and down for the normal price level of newsprint. From February 2009 to the first quarter of this year, newsprint prices have reached 4,400 yuan and below for 14 months, especially for most of last year, paper prices are below 4,000 yuan, making many people overlook the normal occurrence of paper prices. fluctuation. In fact, the following factors make the reasonable recovery of newsprint prices reasonable and inevitable.
1. Imported waste paper prices have risen and supply is unstable.
At present, almost all of China's newsprint production uses waste paper as the main raw material. The production of 1 ton of finished newsprint requires about 1.4 tons of waste newsprint, accounting for 40-50% of the production cost of newsprint. Due to the imperfect domestic waste paper recycling system, the raw materials of China's large newsprint mills are basically imported waste paper. Before the end of 2007, the price of imported waste paper was below US$150/ton.
Due to the significant decline in the volume of paper used in newspapers in North America in recent years, the amount of waste paper resources that can be imported by China has decreased and the quality has declined. In addition, some domestic packaging paper companies have begun to use waste newspapers as raw materials, resulting in tight supply of waste paper. In 2008, the price of imported waste paper reached once reached $300/ton. In the fourth quarter of 2008, due to the financial crisis, the price of imported waste paper fell to below $100. This is also the reason why the price of newsprint has dropped rapidly to around 4,000 yuan. Some newsprint mills began to resume the purchase of waste paper, and the price of waste paper rebounded very quickly. At present, the price of imported waste paper has reached 240 US dollars.
2. The price of coal and electricity transportation has increased significantly compared with that of 2006.
The paper industry is a high-energy-consuming industry, and electricity and hot gas are used in large quantities in the production process. Before 2005, domestic coal prices were at a low level for a long time. After 2006, coal prices have doubled. Transport prices have also risen due to rising fuel prices.
3. Environmental protection costs have risen.
Due to the strict implementation of national environmental protection policies, the environmental protection costs of the paper industry have increased. On May 26, due to the unfulfilled refinancing and environmental protection commitments, Shandong Chenming Paper appeared in the list of 11 listed companies exposed by CCTV.
4. A large number of enterprises have shut down and explained that the operation of newsprint enterprises is bad. Existing enterprises have fully realized that vicious price competition is unsustainable, and the phenomenon of limited production and insured has begun to appear.
In 2004, Heilongjiang Paper closed down; in 2006, Yueyang Paper discontinued newsprint; in 2009, Hebei Noske (Pan Asia) was sold to Huatai Group at a price of 1 yuan, while Huatai Group acquired Hebei Nosk. A total of 360,000 tons of newsprint papers from the Shandong headquarters were converted into cultural paper, and Chenming Paper also transferred the printing paper of Wuhan Chenming's 140,000 tons of news paper machine to cultural paper; this fully shows that the news paper industry is very difficult to operate. Huatai Group suffered a loss in the fourth quarter of 2009. In the first quarter of 2010, Huatai Group continued to lose money in the case of news paper prices rising by RMB 450/ton from the fourth quarter of last year (see Huatai's 2009 annual report and 2010 first quarter report). According to industry sources, Guangzhou Paper Group Corporation also suffered huge losses in 2009. In the Spring Festival of 2010, the newsprint industry collectively stopped for half a month to reduce supply and ensure the price increase was successful.
5. The relationship between supply and demand will no longer function for a long time when the price is lower than the cost.
The price is determined by the supply and demand relationship, but in two cases. First, a certain product is too expensive for the user to accept, and then seeks alternatives; second, the price of a certain product is lower than the cost for a long time, and the producer cannot afford it. Under the premise of the domestic news paper theoretical capacity far greater than the demand, we must also pay attention to the role of rigid cost on the price.
Combined with the factors that constrain the sharp rise in newsprint prices and the recovery of price recovery, we believe that newsprint prices have rebounded to around 4,700, which is the normal state of the market. As the economy improves further, it is not possible to rule out further increases to 5,000 yuan in the second half of the year, but it is less likely to rise again. Under the situation that the overall supply of paper exceeds demand and the development of newspaper industry is relatively stable, it is more cost factor to determine the price trend.
A relatively stable market is beneficial to both the paper industry and the newspaper industry. The paper industry should reasonably control production capacity and avoid vicious price competition. The newspaper industry should also have a normal sense of a reasonable return to paper prices.
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