Forecast and forecast of paper industry in 2012

[ppzhan Abstract] In 2012, the paper industry lacked overall opportunities. From a long-term perspective, paper stocks already have a certain allocation value, and the investment value will gradually appear.

The paper industry lacked overall opportunities in 2012. From a long-term perspective, paper stocks already have a certain allocation value, and the investment value will gradually appear.

The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Forestry Administration jointly issued the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Paper Industry". To accelerate the transformation of the traditional paper industry into a sustainable modern paper industry, the “Planning” put forward requirements in terms of optimizing product structure, increasing industrial concentration, improving equipment levels, reducing resource consumption, reducing pollution emissions, and eliminating backward production capacity.

Guojin Securities (600109 believes that the “Planning” dilutes the quantitative indicators and follows the refinement policy. The main points of the “Planning” are control, structure adjustment and consumption reduction. The domestic paper price is near the bottom and the downward space is limited. The relaxation of monetary policy and the stabilization of the economy, paper prices may usher in a rebound period in the second quarter. From a long-term perspective, in 2012, paper stocks have a certain allocation value, and the investment value will gradually appear. It is recommended to focus on benefiting from backward production capacity. A leading company with strong elimination and competitiveness.

However, Great Wall Securities said in the 2012 investment strategy report of the paper industry that the paper industry will remain in a weak position in 2012, the bargaining power is weak, the economy is difficult to improve, and profits will fall by about 15% from 2011. Therefore, the paper industry lacked overall opportunities in 2012. It is recommended to pay attention to the stability of downstream demand, the price is sticky, and the company is expected to obtain excess returns when the pulp and paper prices are low in 2012.

Haitong Securities also believes that the paper industry is difficult to upgrade in the short term due to the concentrated release of production capacity in recent years and the lack of substantial improvement in demand. Its proposal continues to focus on the industry consolidation under the policy of eliminating backward production capacity. Under this circumstance, the company's leading advantages will become more and more obvious, such as Sun Paper and Chenming Paper. In the context of cost reduction, short-term stocks with strong bargaining power can be selected in the short-term. For example, Zhongshun is soft and clean, and the performance may be greatly improved in the case of cost reduction.

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